Weekly Housing Market Update – 9/16/22 – Chief NAR Economists, Danielle Hale, not only forecasted the rate hike she also highlights her thoughts around 2:35 of the video regarding home sellers and home buyer.
Buyers Gaining Time and Options as Housing Market Rebalances (July Market Report)
By Skylar Olsen on Aug. 18, 2022
- U.S. home values fell 0.1% from June to July, the first decline in the raw Zillow Home Value Index since 2012. Home values fell last month in 30 of the 50 largest metro areas, but are still up 16% from a year ago.
- Rising inventory is being driven by homes lingering on the market and new listings trailing pre-pandemic levels. It took 10 days for a listing to go pending in July, two days longer than in June.
- Rent appreciation is slowing, but the growth rate remains much higher than pre-pandemic levels
After two years of unprecedented growth, national home values fell slightly month-over-month for the first time since 2012, the year home values hit a trough after the housing bubble and bust of the aughts. While July’s housing market data update is big news, and could get first-time buyers’ hopes up, the future is unlikely to bring meaningful improvement to housing affordability.
Prices fall for the first time in a decade
The typical U.S. home value now stands at $357,107 after declining by 0.1% ($366) month over month in July, as measured by the raw Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). A more responsive, but also more volatile flavor of Zillow’s headline price index – monthly growth in the raw ZHVI – has relaxed since reaching a recent peak in April of 1.9% (a rate that would annualize to a whopping 25.1%), slowing to 1.2% growth (15.3% anualized) in May and 0.8% growth (9.7% annualized) in June.
Home values measured by raw ZHVI fell from June to July in 30 of the 50 largest metro areas, an increase from 13 metros the previous month. The largest monthly home value declines were in San Jose (-4.5%) and San Francisco (-2.8%, that’s -28.7% anualized) — the nation’s most expensive major markets — followed by Phoenix (-2.8%) and Austin (-2.7%), which saw the most extreme growth over the pandemic. Values increased the most from June in Miami (1.5%, a still aggressive 19% annualized rate), Richmond (1%, 12.1% annualized) and Memphis (0.9%, 11.2% annualized), although monthly growth is decelerating in these markets as well.
While the recent decline in prices is a notable development, the housing market is still far from a return to “normal” conditions. The current slowdown is prompted by the collision of extreme price growth during the early- and mid-pandemic with the sudden increase in mortgage rates since December – a combination that swiftly weakened would-be homebuyers’ ability to afford or qualify to purchase their next house. The nation’s typical home value is still up 16% year over year and 44.5% since July 2019, despite softer pricing in more recent months. Incorporate higher mortgage rates, and the typical mortgage payment has risen by more than 60% in just one year. While high prices plus higher mortgage rates have pushed some buyers from the market for now, those shoppers who are able to proceed suddenly face a much less competitive market, offering them more time to conduct their search and more options to consider.
Inventory increases continue as homes take longer to sell and sellers cut prices
Cooling competition among buyers has resulted in homes spending more time on the market before selling. While the typical home that goes under contract still does so in a historically short amount of time, this market velocity has slowed considerably from the rapid pace set earlier this year. Homes went pending in a median of 10 days in July – two days slower than the median pace in June. Homes lingering on the market continue to push for-sale inventory up, even as the rate of new homes entering the market slows. The number of active for-sale listings during the month increased by 5.1% in July from June. The increase was the fifth consecutive monthly uptick, with each month successively stronger (for the most part) than seasonally typical for the spring into summer shopping season. July’s monthly inventory lift at 5.1%, for example, dwarfs the 1% average for July during 2018 and 2019.
While the pool of inventory is increasing quickly, a more substantial increase in for-sale listings has been hindered by slowing new construction – home starts fell 9.6% in July from June – and general hesitation from would-be sellers. New for-sale listings of existing homes fell 13.6% month over month in July. A far bigger drop than is seasonally typical, the rate of new listings hitting the market has been slower than pre-pandemic norms since the beginning of the year. In July for example, 16.6% fewer new listings were put on the market than the average July from 2018 and 2019. Would-be sellers remain mindful of their ability (or lack thereof) to purchase their next home and rising mortgage rates have left many homeowners “locked in” to their existing interest rate. A massive wave of homeowners refinanced during the pandemic, either to benefit from historically low mortgage rates directly or to harvest their home’s equity with a cash out refinance. Cheap financing offered an opportunity for many to remodel their property to better meet their changing needs rather than move on. As a result, the recent increases in for-sale inventory are more reflective of reduced competition than any real increase in the overall options that buyers will have over their multi-month shopping experience. What’s more, this lack of new listing activity should continue to buoy home prices against persistent or deeper declines.
Active sellers and their agents are suddenly having to adjust to the changing market conditions. The share of for-sale listings with a price cut jumped to 18.6% in July – up 7.5 percentage points from July 2021 and more than double the share of listings that saw a price decrease in April. While the overall share of listings seeing a price reduction isn’t abnormal – in the years preceding the pandemic it wasn’t uncommon for one in five listings to adjust their price during the month to help the property sell in reasonable time – the sharp increase in this activity is a loud indicator of how sellers are shifting their pricing strategies to account for quickly changing market conditions, even if recent price reductions haven’t materialized into true bargains for home shoppers yet.
Rent growth continues to moderate
The rental market remains in a period of relative calm, continuing a trend that’s formed in recent months. The nation’s typical monthly rent in July was $2,031, up 0.6% from June and up 13.7% from a year prior. After a rapid run-up that peaked in February, and seeing higher volatility throughout the pandemic’s first year and a half, rent growth has moderated in recent months. That said, although growth is decelerating, the annual growth rate is still more than three times that of July 2019.
Among major metros, the most significant slowdowns in monthly rent growth since July of last year occurred in Las Vegas (from 3.6% to -0.2%), Phoenix (3.5% to -0.3%), Tampa (3.9% to 0.3%), and Austin (3.8% to 0.7%).
The Big Picture
The housing market is ultimately correcting for extreme pressure during the pandemic. However, challenges to new supply and strong long-run housing demand driven by massive younger generations aging into first-time home buying suggests that, as the slowdown continues to progress and competition and price pressures ease, enough buyers will be ready to move forward and turn the market back toward (hopefully healthier) positive price growth.
JULY 22, 2022
By Kerry Smith
Sales will weaken and for-sale inventory will grow, but it won’t do much to help affordability, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said.
WASHINGTON – National Association of Realtors® (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun spoke before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs as they dig deeper in an attempt to understand what’s happening in the U.S. housing market.
Yun told the committee that he doesn’t foresee a nationwide decline in home prices despite indications that price growth is set to slow. He testified that the potential for weaker sales should increase available for-sale inventory in some markets, but not enough to diminish persistent affordability constraints that, for many Americans, have kept homeownership out of reach for years.
“In the near term, I do not expect the situation to change appreciably,” Yun said Thursday. “Historic undersupply in the market, combined with continued demand, will likely drive ongoing issues with affordability for many Americans.
“Any short-term price adjustments, if they occur, will be less consequential compared to the immense longer-term housing affordability challenges we face as a country.”
Thursday’s hearing, Priced Out: The State of Housing in America, was recorded and can be viewed online.
The committee hearings come as the nation confronts a 6-million-unit housing shortage. The decades-in-the-making phenomenon has helped sustain year-over-year price growth for a record 124 consecutive months. A study of other circumstances influencing the market is also particularly compelling given COVID’s impact on U.S. housing and the more recent fluctuations in mortgage interest rates.
“When the Federal Reserve essentially went all-in in the early months of the pandemic … the decline in mortgage rates and the cautious reopening of the economy boosted housing demand,” said Yun. “The housing market always responds to changes in mortgage rates.”
Interest rates, which had been consistently in the 4-to-5% range in the decade preceding COVID-19, hovered near record lows of around 3% throughout much of 2020 and 2021. NAR’s most recent existing home sales report found that the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage in June was up to 5.52%.
“Any increases in available inventory observed over the first half of this year have been offset by the corresponding increases in consumer costs,” Yun said on Capitol Hill, explaining that rate increases of roughly 2.5 percentage points have added about $800 per month to a median-priced house payment.
“This affordability crunch is felt most acutely as we move down the income scale and by minority households, given the current income distribution in America,” he continued. “That is why housing supply must be addressed to moderate home price and rent gains.”
© 2022 Florida Realtors®
Many consumers are wondering what will happen with home values over the next few years. Some are concerned that the recent run-up in home prices will lead to a situation similar to the housing crash 15 years ago.
However, experts say the market is totally different today. For example, Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, tweeted just last week on this issue:
“. . . We do need price appreciation to slow today (it’s not sustainable over the long run) but high price growth today is supported by fundamentals- short supply, lower rates & demographic demand. And we are in a much different & safer space: better credit quality, low DTI [Debt-To-Income] & tons of equity. Hence, a crash in prices is very unlikely.”
Price appreciation will slow from the double-digit levels the market has seen over the last two years. However, experts believe home values will not depreciate (where a home would lose value).
To this point, Pulsenomics just released the latest Home Price Expectation Survey – a survey of a national panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. It forecasts home prices will continue appreciating over the next five years. Below are the expected year-over-year rates of home price appreciation based on the average of all 100+ projections:
- 2022: 9%
- 2023: 4.74%
- 2024: 3.67%
- 2025: 3.41%
- 2026: 3.57%
Those responding to the survey believe home price appreciation will still be relatively high this year (though half of what it was last year), and then return to more normal levels over the next four years.
What Does This Mean for You as a Buyer?
With a limited supply of homes available for sale and both prices and mortgage rates increasing, it can be a challenging market to navigate as a buyer. But buying a home sooner rather than later does have its benefits. If you wait to buy, you’ll pay more in the future. However, if you buy now, you’ll actually be in the position to make future price increases work for you. Once you buy, those rising home prices will help you build your home’s value, and by extension, your own household wealth through home equity.
As an example, let’s assume you purchased a $360,000 home in January of this year (the median price according to the National Association of Realtors rounded up to the nearest $10K). If you factor in the forecast for appreciation from the Home Price Expectation Survey, you could accumulate over $96,000 in household wealth over the next five years (see graph below):
If you’re trying to decide whether to buy now or wait, the key is knowing what’s expected to happen with home prices. Experts say prices will continue to climb in the years ahead, just at a slower pace. So, if you’re ready to buy, doing so now may be your best bet for your wallet. It’ll also give you the chance to use the future home price appreciation to build your own net worth through rising equity. If you want to get started, let’s connect today.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies about monetary policy and the state of the economy before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. Powell reiterated the Fed is gearing up to raise interest rates this month.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the central bank is on track to start raising interest rates this month — likely by a quarter percentage point — in an effort to combat inflation, which is the highest it’s been in nearly 40 years.
But the Fed will proceed with caution, Powell told the House Financial Services Committee, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine adds more uncertainty to the economic outlook.
“The economics of these events are highly uncertain,” Powell said. “So far, we’ve seen energy prices move up further and those increases will move through the economy and push up headline inflation, and also they’re going to weigh on spending.”
The average price of gasoline in the U.S. approached $3.66 per gallon on Wednesday. Rising energy prices have been a significant driver of annual inflation, which hit 7.5% in January – the highest level since 1982.
Powell says it’s too soon to tell on Ukraine
Powell said it’s too soon to know how large or long-lasting price increases tied to events in Ukraine will be, so he and his colleagues on the central bank’s rate-setting committee are prepared to be flexible.
“We’re never on auto-pilot,” Powell said. “Those of us on the committee have an expectation that inflation will peak and begin to come down this year. And to the extent that inflation comes in higher or is more persistently high than that, then we would be prepared move more aggressively.”
Forecasters expect the Fed to impose additional interest rate hikes later this year in an effort to cool red-hot consumer demand, which has outstripped supply and driven prices sharply higher.
By: Diana Olick CNBC Real Estate Correspondent
- The profit on a typical home sale last year was just over $94,000, an increase of 45% from the profit in 2020 and 71% from pre-pandemic profits.
- About 42% of homeowners were considered equity-rich at the end of last year
- The amount of tappable equity (equity above the 20% usually required by lenders to back a mortgage) grew by $2.6 trillion last year to a record total of $9.9 trillion.
The stunning jump in home values over the course of the Covid-19 pandemic has given U.S. homeowners record amounts of housing wealth. What they choose to do with it could have impacts on the broader economy.
Annual home price gains averaged 15% in 2021, up from 6% in 2020, according to CoreLogic. Strong pandemic-driven demand, record low supply and record low mortgage rates conspired to create those hefty gains. Bidding wars are now the norm, and desperate buyers are competing with investors who want to cash in on the hot market. The upward trend is continuing, despite winter being historically the slowest season for housing.
“While we expect this year’s buyers will eventually see some relief from the 2021 frenzy, home shoppers continue to face challenging conditions in the early days of 2022,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com. “In fact, last week’s home price and time on market trends suggest competition intensified.”
- According to a Gallup poll, real estate has been rated the best long-term investment for eight years in a row.
- Real estate tops the list because you’re not just buying a place to call home – you’re investing in your future. Real estate is typically considered a stable and secure asset that can grow in value over time.
- Let’s connect today if you’re ready to make real estate your best investment this year.
A year before his death, he launched the Poor People’s Campaign to fight job and housing inequality, among other issues. Historians say the Poor People’s Campaign and the Chicago Open Housing Movement laid the groundwork for the 1968 Fair Housing Act
Trikosko, Marion S.,/Library of CongressBY MARIAN MCPHERSONJanuary 15, 2018
This post was last updated Jan. 14, 2022. – Inman News
Although Martin Luther King, Jr. is most remembered for his struggle to secure voting rights and stop segregation, the civil rights icon’s dream of racial equity reached far beyond integrated public life — it also included economic security and housing rights for the millions of minority and low-income Americans who’d been relegated to their cities’ under-resourced neighborhoods and housing projects.
King began planting the seeds of what would become the Poor People’s Campaign in Chicago, where thousands of Black Chicagoans struggled with job and housing insecurity — something they’d hoped they escaped during the Great Migration, the term used to describe a decades-long exodus from the fields of the South to the factories of the North.
Although some Black people found great success in Chicago, Detroit, New York City and other similar places, many more found the only thing that changed in their life was their address.
“We are here today because we are tired,” Dr. King said, according to a transcript of a speech he made at Chicago’s Soldier Field. “We are tired of paying more for less. We are tired of living in rat-infested slums … We are tired of having to pay a median rent of $97 a month in Lawndale for four rooms while whites living in South Deering pay $73 a month for five rooms.”
“Now is the time to make real the promises of democracy,” he added. “Now is the time to open the doors of opportunity to all of God’s children.”
According to articles by HuffPost and NPR, Dr. King spent much of 1966 in Chicago, even moving his family to an apartment on the city’s predominately Black west side. There, King and Southern Christian Leadership Conference (SCLC) launched the Chicago Open Housing Movement, whose goals included the rehab of public housing, increasing the supply of affordable housing, pushing for diversity and integration in businesses and unions, a $2 minimum wage and the abolition of wage garnishment.
Over the course of the year, King and SCLC activists held citywide rallies, planned demonstrations in front of real estate brokerages and marched into Chicago’s all-white neighborhoods, which were met with violent reactions from the city’s white residents. “Well, this is a terrible thing,” King said in a soundbite acquired by NPR. “I’ve been in many demonstrations all across the South, but I can say that I have never seen, even in Mississippi and Alabama, mobs as hostile and as hate-filled as I’m seeing in Chicago.”
Eager to quell the violence, Chicago’s mayor, Richard J. Daley, agreed to meet with King and other activists in August 1966 to work out an agreement, which included building future public housing with “limited height requirements,” and requiring the Mortgage Bankers Association to make mortgages available regardless of race.
King hailed the agreement ‘‘the most signiﬁcant program ever conceived to make open housing a reality,’’ but tempered his assessment by recognizing it as only “the ﬁrst step in a 1,000-mile journey.’’
The next year, King went back to the South and began planning the Poor People’s Campaign, which was built from his experiences in Chicago the year before. He and the SCLC began creating a blueprint for economic and housing equity that addressed the systems and policies that kept minority and low-income communities behind the eight ball.
“This is a highly significant event,” King told the SCLC in November 1967, according to an archive at Stanford’s King Institute. “[This] the beginning of a new co-operation, understanding, and a determination by poor people of all colors and backgrounds to assert and win their right to a decent life and respect for their culture and dignity.”
He garnered support from civil rights leaders in American Indian, Puerto Rican, Mexican American, and poor white communities and began planning another March on Washington to demand jobs, unemployment insurance, a fair minimum wage, and education for adults and children. “It’s as pure as a man needing an income to support his family,” King said.
King was assassinated before he could finish planning the demonstration; however, other SCLC leaders and his wife, Coretta Scott King, banned together and finished planning the march, which took place on Mothers’ Day 1968. After the initial demonstration, protestors pitched tents on the Mall in Washington and lobbied for fair employment and housing policies until their park permit expired a month later.
Even though the campaign was largely unsuccessful in making widespread change — they did secure free food surplus distribution to 200 counties — historians say the Poor People’s Campaign and the Chicago Open Housing Movement laid the groundwork for the 1968 Fair Housing Act, which ensures that all Americans have access to equal housing opportunities and outlaws discrimination based on an individual’s race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability or familial status.
Although the Fair Housing Act has improved the living conditions of Americans, many readily point out there is still much work as evidenced by disproportionately low homeownership rates for Blacks, rampant gentrification in communities of color, a lack of affordable housing for low-income individuals and families, and concerns about new technologies, such as Facebook, being used to discreetly discriminate.
“And we have to continue in the legacy of MLK and the civil rights movement and the legacy of abolition movements of before,” said Paige May, a Chicago resident who spoke to NPR after an event to celebrate MLK.
“We have a lot of work to do, but it’s also — it feels like a day that’s celebratory in a lot of ways, right? But in the sphere of struggle and resistance.”
By Clare Trapasso
Dec 1, 2021
3 of a 3 part series
- Realtor.com anticipates mortgage rates will rise to an average 3.3%, hitting around 3.6% by the end of 2022.
- Rental prices have been soaring, and tenants aren’t expected to get any relief. Prices have surged and are expected to continue rising by 7.1% in 2022.
- The culprit behind the price hikes: There simply aren’t enough homes to go around—for rent or sale.
Mortgage rates have been the wild card to the housing market during the pandemic. Low rates at the start of COVID-19 helped fuel dizzying price jumps as buyers could afford to spend more on homes. That’s because they were paying less interest each month so they could absorb the higher home prices.
However, as the economy has improved and inflation has risen, making everything from a dozen eggs to a gallon of gas more expensive, rates are also expected to go up. That could help curb the runaway price growth that was seen in the spring. Buyers can stretch their budgets only so far.
Realtor.com anticipates mortgage rates will rise to an average 3.3%, hitting around 3.6% by the end of 2022. That’s up from a low of 2.65% in the first week of January for 30-year fixed-rate loans, according to Freddie Mac data.
While that doesn’t sound like much of a hike, it adds up.
The difference of roughly a percentage point to 3.6% would result in about $157 extra tacked on to the monthly payment of a median-priced home of $380,000. That can total more than $56,500 over the life of a 30-year loan. (This assumes the buyers put down 20% and does not include property taxes, insurance costs, or homeowners association fees.)
It’s also likely to result in homebuying becoming even more expensive. With home prices continuing to tick up a little and rates increasing, those purchasing a home with a mortgage will wind up shelling out more each month.
Rents will keep shooting up higher than home prices
It isn’t just homebuying that’s gotten more expensive. Rental prices have been soaring, and tenants aren’t expected to get any relief. Prices have surged and are expected to continue rising by 7.1% in 2022.
At the beginning of the pandemic, as home sale prices spiraled, rents in many of the big cities dropped precipitously. Many tenants moved to larger, nicer apartments with more amenities at deeply discounted rents. Then this year, they were hit with steep increases even in smaller, more traditionally affordable cities and suburbs.
The culprit behind the price hikes: There simply aren’t enough homes to go around—for rent or sale. Many aspiring homebuyers who keep losing bidding wars or can’t afford high homes prices are stuck renting. Plus, there are plenty of folks who moved in with family and roommates or split up with their partners during the pandemic who are looking for their own rentals.
“With apartment vacancies still near historic lows and landlords making up for lost rent increases during the pandemic, rents are expected to continue to grow,” says Hale.
By Clare Trapasso
Dec 1, 2021
2 of a 3 part series
- “The shortage of homes for sale, that has been more than a decade in the making, will keep home prices high,”
- Millennials are a massive generation—next year, there will be more than 45 million millennials between the ages of 26 and 35, which are prime homebuying years.
Unfortunately, for frustrated buyers who have had trouble finding the right homes in the right locations at the right price, there isn’t expected to be a rush of homes hitting the market.
Realtor.com economists predict the number of homes for sale, which is hovering around record lows, will tick up only 0.3%. That’s partly due to builders having a tough time ramping up construction as they contend with shortages in workers and materials, compounded by the global supply chain backups. (Single-family housing starts, which is when builders start construction, is expected to rise only 5% next year.)
There are plenty of investors snapping up single-family homes and turning them into rentals. And there is no tidal wave of foreclosures expected to hit now that the government moratoriums are expiring.
There are also more homebuyers today than there are abodes for sale.
Millennials are a massive generation—next year, there will be more than 45 million millennials between the ages of 26 and 35, which are prime homebuying years. So there would need to be substantially more homes built to keep up with the needed housing—except builders stopped building during the Great Recession and there are fewer homes going up today.
“The shortage of homes for sale, that has been more than a decade in the making, will keep home prices high,” says Hale.
Sales will also continue to climb, hitting a 16-year high as they go up by 6.6%, Realtor.com economists anticipate. That’s partly because technology has sped up the homebuying process. Plus, buyers are jumping on whatever comes up for sale in record time before the property is snapped up by another eager buyer.
Attractively priced homes in good shape are expected to continue going under contract quickly.
“Homes are selling so much faster than they have in any previous [years],” says Hale.
That speed supports increased housing turnover as more abodes change hands as folks move into their first homes or relocate, trade up into larger residences, and downsize.
The popularity of the suburbs is also likely to endure. They emerged as the places to be during the pandemic as buyers could score more square footage and bigger yards for less money than in the bigger cities.
“For years, we heard about the dying suburbs because millennials didn’t want to live there, but as they age, guess where they’re heading?” asks Hale.
Some were even moving to the burbs before the pandemic.
“This budding trend was accelerated by the needs of aging millennials, often with families, trying to grapple head-on with the realities of doing more than ever before from home,” says Hale.
Remote work will also likely be a factor. With more workers telecommuting or going into the office only a few times a week, they don’t have to contend with grueling commutes five days a week. Many are more comfortable moving farther outside of the cities where they can get larger abodes with room for a home office at an attractive price.
That’s likely to keep prices high in desirable communities.
“Shoppers were looking for affordable homes with space that could be used flexibly to accommodate working, schooling, exercising, cooking, and all of the other living and relaxing we used to take for granted,” says Hale.
It won’t be easy for first-time homebuyers
First-time buyers are likely to continue struggling to compete with the offers over the asking price and win the bidding wars.
The ace in their pocket is the work-from-home phenomenon that has allowed many white-collar professionals to work from anywhere they have a strong Wi-Fi connection. So they may be able to relocate to cheaper destinations that make up for what they lack in Michelin star restaurants with more affordable home prices.
“Maybe they’re not buying a home in or near a major city where prices are high and the market is still competitive,” says Hale. “But they can move farther away from the city to the suburbs or to an entirely new city where it’s more affordable.”
The savings many who held on to their jobs were able to amass early on in the pandemic—when the stimulus checks went out and many folks cut back on dining out and traveling—may help them with the down payments. Some buyers temporarily moved back home with families or doubled up with friends to save on housing costs as well.
“I know a lot of people are expecting housing prices and sales to peak and then decline. Instead, I think there’s enough momentum from these younger buyers who want to get into the housing market to keep sales moving forward,” says Hale. “They are going to succeed because that drive to buy a home and make it happen when you’re ready is really strong.”