‘Peculiar’ Economy to Stabilize in Second Half of 2021?

Leading economists say the labor, housing, and stock markets will reach crucial markers that will indicate the recovery’s progress. From NAR’s virtual Real Estate Forecast Summit, Dec. 10

Housing Market

The housing market has been a bright spot this year, though inventory is a challenge.  The problem, Berson says, isn’t just homebuilding and permitting but also getting prospective sellers to put their homes on the market. “Hopefully, people will feel good about strangers coming into their home once there’s a vaccine,” he said.  – Realtor Magazine

Click the link for more, source: ‘Peculiar’ Economy to Stabilize in Second Half of 2021?

CoreLogic – Three-Year Housing and Mortgage Outlook

  • 30-year fixed-rate loans to remain below 3% during early 2021 and average about 3.2% during the next three years.
  • Millennials will add substantial demand for housing over the next few years.
  • Home prices projected to rise in most metro areas, albeit slower than in recent years.

2020 was a truly unprecedented year. With it behind us, let’s look ahead at three housing market trends that are likely during the next three years.

Figure 1: Mortgage Rates Are Forecast to Remain Low

First, exceptionally low mortgage rates are likely to be around for an extended period. We expect 30-year fixed-rate loans to remain below 3% during early 2021 and average about 3.2% during the next three years. This would be nearly a percentage point lower than the average over the 2010-2019 decade. These low rates will provide an excellent opportunity for families with good credit to buy or refinance homes.

Figure 2: Large Demographic Tailwind Has Arrived

Second, Millennials will add substantial demand for housing over the next few years. Looking at America’s population by age, the largest numbers of Millennials are those aged 28 to 30. With 33 as the median age of recent first-time buyers, demographic forces will add an important tailwind to home-buying demand. In fact, we expect home sales relative to the housing stock, a measure of home “turnover”, in 2021 to 2023 to be above the average annual turnover rate of the prior two decades.

Figure 3: Home Price Forecast to Rise Slower than Last Decade

Third, we expect home prices to rise in most neighborhoods, albeit at a more modest pace than in recent years. Price appreciation is expected to average 2.5% per year during the next three years, compared with 4.8% per year during the prior decade. One reason for slower value growth is because we expect for-sale inventory will increase. 2020’s pandemic delayed new construction and led many prospective sellers to postpone listings. Once the coronavirus dissipates or a vaccine is widely available, we expect to see the number of new and existing homes listed for sale to rise, helping to ease price appreciation. One caveat: while we predict most communities will see gradual price growth, some metros that have been especially hard hit by the pandemic recession will likely have price declines.

Low mortgage rates, growing numbers of first-time buyers, and gradually rising home values are three housing market trends we expect during the next three years.
© 2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.


START TO FINISH – 406 DAYS, SO MANY GREAT THINGS HAVE COME WITH TIME AND PATIENCE

No it’s not the pandemic; there we can only follow safety precautions and hope.

Rather it’s one of my clients’ timeline to Sell and Buy during 2020. How did they go from a home of 9 yrs, with three school-aged children and two full time working parents into a new build that will suit their family for the next 20+ years during an unimaginable world wide pandemic? One step at a time.


We first connected on October 20, 2019. From there, we developed an individual step by step plan of ‘how to’ execute their real estate goals.
Following that plan led them to identifying the location, negotiating with the builder of their new home, and ratifying on Jan 1, 2020.
Coordinating with the builder, designers, lender and title resulted in closing on October 2, 2020, three months behind schedule due to pandemic related delays.

Then it was time to list their home of 9 years.

Despite being three months behind our original timeline, we referred back to the step by step plan we had created.
Without skipping a beat, my clients stuck to the plan and completed everything we had discussed to get the house ready for market.
We listed on a Thursday, ratified 5 days later on that Monday and closed in 21 days on November 30, 2020.


Where Are Home Values Headed Over the Next 12 Months?

As shelter-in-place orders were implemented earlier this year, many questioned what the shutdown would mean to the real estate market. Specifically, there was concern about home values. After years of rising home prices, would 2020 be the year this appreciation trend would come to a screeching halt? Even worse, would home values begin to depreciate?

Original forecasts modeled this uncertainty, and they ranged anywhere from home values gaining 3% (Zelman & Associates) to home values depreciating by more than 6% (CoreLogic).

However, as the year unfolded, it became clear that there would be little negative impact on the housing market. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, recently revealed:

“The only major industry to display immunity to the economic impacts of the coronavirus is the housing market.”

Have prices continued to appreciate so far this year?

Last week, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its latest Home Price Index. The report showed home prices actually rose 6.5% from the same time last year. FHFA also noted that price appreciation accelerated to record levels over the summer months:

What are the experts forecasting for home prices going forward?

Below is a graph of home price projections for the next year. Since the market has changed dramatically over the last few months, this graph shows forecasts that have been published since September 1st.

Where Are Home Values Headed Over the Next 12 Months? | MyKCM

“Between May & July 2020, national prices increased by over 2%, which represents the largest two-month price increase observed since the start of the index in 1991.”

Bottom Line

The numbers show that home values have weathered the storm of the pandemic. Let’s connect if you want to know what your home is currently worth and how that may enable you to make a move this year.


Real Estate Persists Being About People And The RElationships Built.

Four years ago Jacob and Amanda relocated to the DMV area for a work opportunity with every intention of going back to their home state of Michigan. Despite not knowing their timeline as to when they could go home, they knew it was better to buy versus rent. To be a a small part in their larger plan, a facilitator to the purchase of their home and now selling it, has been rewarding. Their hard work and careful planning is paying off. They are on their way home. With only three day on the market, they received an offer over list price and stand to walk away with a return on their investment.

Under Contract: 20432 Summersong Lane Germantown, MD 20874
​Link to listing | Virtual Tour Link
Bedrooms: ​2​ | Full Bath: ​3.5​ | Sq. Feet: ​1594


Pending Home Sales Notch Record-Setting 44.3% Monthly Increase in May

A Historic Rebound for the Housing Market

A Historic Rebound for the Housing Market | MyKCM

Pending Home Sales increased by 44.3% in May, registering the highest month-over-month gain in the index since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) started tracking this metric in January 2001. So, what exactly are pending home sales, and why is this rebound so important?

According to NAR, the Pending Home Sales Index (PHS) is:

“A leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing-Home Sales by a month or two.”

In real estate, pending home sales is a key indicator in determining the strength of the housing market. As mentioned before, it measures how many existing homes went into contract in a specific month. When a buyer goes through the steps to purchase a home, the final one is the closing. On average, that happens about two months after the contract is signed, depending on how fast or slow the process takes in each state.

Why is this rebound important?

A Historic Rebound for the Housing Market | MyKCM

With the COVID-19 pandemic and a shutdown of the economy, we saw a steep two-month decline in the number of houses that went into contract. In May, however, that number increased dramatically (See graph below):This jump means buyers are back in the market and purchasing homes right now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR mentioned:

“This has been a spectacular recovery for contract signings and goes to show the resiliency of American consumers and their evergreen desire for homeownership…This bounce back also speaks to how the housing sector could lead the way for a broader economic recovery.”

But in order to continue with this trend, we need more houses for sale on the market. Yun continues to say:

“More listings are continuously appearing as the economy reopens, helping with inventory choices…Still, more home construction is needed to counter the persistent underproduction of homes over the past decade.”

A Historic Rebound for the Housing Market | MyKCM

As we move through the year, we’ll see an increase in the number of houses being built. This will help combat a small portion of the inventory deficit. The lack of overall inventory, however, is still a challenge, and it is creating an opportunity for homeowners who are ready to sell. As the graph below shows, during the last 12 months, the supply of homes for sale has been decreasing year-over-year and is not keeping up with the demand from homebuyers.

Bottom Line

If you decided not to sell this spring due to the health crisis, maybe it’s time to jump back into the market while buyers are actively looking for homes. Let’s connect today to determine your best move forward.


A Look At Selling Real Estate During Covid-19

Laurel Murphy Real Estates most recent listing reflects what regional market updates are reporting. With low inventory levels, my owners had no competition within their neighborhood at the time of listing their home located as 13305 Burnt Woods Place Germantown, MD 20874
With the neighborhood average 38 DOM the owners priced the house with in the range of the 90 day sold price history. This listing went on late Friday night and was ratified for full list price by Sunday. Being aware of local real estate trends and knowing how to interpret market data is vital to successfully selling your house in the shortest amount of time for the most amount of money.

Washington D.C. and Baltimore Metro areas felt the effect of COVID-19 with the lowest April volume of new listings in ten years, while also reaching a record monthly median sales price and ten-year low for days on market.BrightMLS

  • The DC Metro hit a new median sales price high ($507K) and a decade low for median days on market (7). Homes generally sold at 100.0% of asking price.
  • This April had the month’s lowest volume of new listings in the past ten years, as many potential new sellers opted to hold back listing their properties until after the “stay at home” orders end.
  • Month-to-month, new listing declined -26.1%; typically, new listings rise 9.2% in April compared to March.
  • New pending sales endured their sharpest year-over-year drop in a decade.
  • This was the weakest April performance and sharpest March to April decline (-24.4%) in the last ten years.

Real Estate Is A People Business: Now More Than Ever

At its core, real estate is about people and the relationships that are created.

Real estate professionals take on the unique responsibility of guiding clients through a highly personal, and often emotional, multi-step process of selling or buying a home. It is a momentous occasion for everyone who’s gone through it. This can easily be overshadowed by the sheer amount of steps it takes to get to the settlement table and close. The constant support throughout the process is your real estate agent.

In this unique reality of Corona virus aka COVID-19, the importance of keeping the focus on people being served will have a greater, longer, lasting effect.

In our professional tool box, real estate agents have technology. We rely on and utilize it on a normal day to make the transaction part of real estate more efficient and convenient for our clients. This current climate is no different. The way in which we use it may vary but the focus remains on the people, first and foremost your safety.

Current industry standards comply with today’s social distancing necessity.

  • The Internet – its global reach to market RE for sellers to buyers
  • Social Media – for marketing and communication ie.GoToMeeting, Zoom, Instant messaging
  • Your phone – text, email, old school calling
  • Virtual tours – ie. Matterport, use of a videographer
  • Electronic signing – ie. DocuSign, Dotloop
  • Real estate apps – 24/7 home searching ie. Homesnap, Redfin, Zillow,
  • Online lender applications
  • Close at home with mobile notary
  • E-signing closing documents (available for sellers and cash buyers)
  • Wiring funds and EMD’s ( wiring instructions should be obtained over the phone directly from the title company only)
  • Online scheduling – options for appointment only at the owners discretion

    Title companies, lenders and insurance companies are listed as essential and are open for business. Together with real estate brokerages, each sector is doing everything they can to cooperate and comply with the safety measures while meeting clients needs.


2019 in REview

By providing market knowledge and experience that lets clients break down the process step by step, we make their experience a positive and exciting one. A metric for Laurel Murphy Real Estate to gauge whether we are achieving our goal is the percent of business we do from referrals or repeat business. 

In our first full year we serviced 50% sellers and 50% buyers with 85% from referrals or repeat clients. Helping family and friends of past clients is a responsibility we appreciate and take seriously.  Going into 2020 we have every intention to increase our numbers, one referral at a time.