Scott Bradley Brixen – ListReports Blog

Real Estate News

Interest rates for the average 30-yr, fixed-rate mortgage according to Freddie Mac’s PMMS hit:

4% in March 😟
5% in April 😰
6% in early-September 😨
7% (well, almost) in late-September 😱

The slowdown continues, but we have yet to see the impact of the most recent (massive) jump in mortgage rates on homebuyer demand.

August existing home sales dropped for the 7th straight month. Price growth decelerated further to “just” 8% YoY. [Source: Realtor.com]

Meanwhile, pending sales for August dropped 2% MoM and 24% YoY. The NAR now forecasts existing home sales to fall 15% YoY in 2022, with new home sales down 21% YoY. [Source: NAR]

Case-Shiller Index

Home price growth slowed to 15.8% YoY in July, from 18.1% YoY in June. That may not seem like much, but it’s the biggest 1-month drop in the index’s history.

Case-Shiller is the gold standard for home price appreciation because it tracks the sales prices of very similar homes across 20 big cities. It’s an ‘apples to apples’ comparison. But that accuracy comes at a cost…the data is 2 months old by the time we get it.

Mortgage Market

An extremely volatile week for the bond market (after the Fed raised rates 75bps) saw 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages briefly exceed 7% [with no points], before dropping back to around 6.75%. [Source: Mortgage News Daily]

Freddie Mac’s closely watched PMMS survey saw the interest rate on the average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage climb to 6.7%. Keep in mind that this figure includes an average 0.9 points purchased. Without those points, the rate would have been at/ahead of 7%.

Still a Seller’s Market

Demand is falling and inventory has risen, but in most markets, well-priced homes are still selling very, very quickly.

In fact, the average Days on Market for sold properties has only edged up from 14 (in June & July) to 16 in August. In 2011 that figure was 96! Looked at another way, 81% of homes sold in August had been on the market less than a month.

That said, the average number of offers received for each property sold has plunged from a frenzied 5.5 in April 2022 to 2.5 in August. That’s actually getting pretty close to “normal” pre-pandemic levels of competition.

National Housing Stats

They Said It

“Success demands singleness of purpose. You need to be doing fewer things for more effect instead of doing more things with side effects. It is those who concentrate on one thing at a time who advance in this world.” — Gary Keller, The One Thing

“Our house is clean enough to be healthy and dirty enough to be happy” — Robyn Griggs Lawrence

Inspiration

The average duration of homeownership in the US is around 12 years. So if someone in your sphere of influence (SOI) bought a home in the last few years, there’s no reason to actively stay in touch with them, right? Wrong. Take the inverse of 12 (that’s 1/12) and you get 8.3%.

This means that, mathematically, 8% of your SOI is going to move in the next year…for reasons that you (and often they) couldn’t have predicted. Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky said “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” In real estate, you probably lose 80–90% of the past clients that you don’t stay in contact with.


Not many more homes are expected to go up for sale

By Clare Trapasso
Dec 1, 2021

2 of a 3 part series
Highlights:

  • “The shortage of homes for sale, that has been more than a decade in the making, will keep home prices high,”
  • Millennials are a massive generation—next year, there will be more than 45 million millennials between the ages of 26 and 35, which are prime homebuying years.

Unfortunately, for frustrated buyers who have had trouble finding the right homes in the right locations at the right price, there isn’t expected to be a rush of homes hitting the market.

Realtor.com economists predict the number of homes for sale, which is hovering around record lows, will tick up only 0.3%. That’s partly due to builders having a tough time ramping up construction as they contend with shortages in workers and materials, compounded by the global supply chain backups. (Single-family housing starts, which is when builders start construction, is expected to rise only 5% next year.)

There are plenty of investors snapping up single-family homes and turning them into rentals. And there is no tidal wave of foreclosures expected to hit now that the government moratoriums are expiring.

There are also more homebuyers today than there are abodes for sale.

Millennials are a massive generation—next year, there will be more than 45 million millennials between the ages of 26 and 35, which are prime homebuying years. So there would need to be substantially more homes built to keep up with the needed housing—except builders stopped building during the Great Recession and there are fewer homes going up today.

“The shortage of homes for sale, that has been more than a decade in the making, will keep home prices high,” says Hale.

Sales will also continue to climb, hitting a 16-year high as they go up by 6.6%, Realtor.com economists anticipate. That’s partly because technology has sped up the homebuying process. Plus, buyers are jumping on whatever comes up for sale in record time before the property is snapped up by another eager buyer.

Attractively priced homes in good shape are expected to continue going under contract quickly.

“Homes are selling so much faster than they have in any previous [years],” says Hale.

That speed supports increased housing turnover as more abodes change hands as folks move into their first homes or relocate, trade up into larger residences, and downsize.

The popularity of the suburbs is also likely to endure. They emerged as the places to be during the pandemic as buyers could score more square footage and bigger yards for less money than in the bigger cities.

“For years, we heard about the dying suburbs because millennials didn’t want to live there, but as they age, guess where they’re heading?” asks Hale.

Some were even moving to the burbs before the pandemic.

“This budding trend was accelerated by the needs of aging millennials, often with families, trying to grapple head-on with the realities of doing more than ever before from home,” says Hale.

Remote work will also likely be a factor. With more workers telecommuting or going into the office only a few times a week, they don’t have to contend with grueling commutes five days a week. Many are more comfortable moving farther outside of the cities where they can get larger abodes with room for a home office at an attractive price.

That’s likely to keep prices high in desirable communities.

“Shoppers were looking for affordable homes with space that could be used flexibly to accommodate working, schooling, exercising, cooking, and all of the other living and relaxing we used to take for granted,” says Hale.

It won’t be easy for first-time homebuyers

First-time buyers are likely to continue struggling to compete with the offers over the asking price and win the bidding wars.

The ace in their pocket is the work-from-home phenomenon that has allowed many white-collar professionals to work from anywhere they have a strong Wi-Fi connection. So they may be able to relocate to cheaper destinations that make up for what they lack in Michelin star restaurants with more affordable home prices.

“Maybe they’re not buying a home in or near a major city where prices are high and the market is still competitive,” says Hale. “But they can move farther away from the city to the suburbs or to an entirely new city where it’s more affordable.”

The savings many who held on to their jobs were able to amass early on in the pandemic—when the stimulus checks went out and many folks cut back on dining out and traveling—may help them with the down payments. Some buyers temporarily moved back home with families or doubled up with friends to save on housing costs as well.

“I know a lot of people are expecting housing prices and sales to peak and then decline. Instead, I think there’s enough momentum from these younger buyers who want to get into the housing market to keep sales moving forward,” says Hale. “They are going to succeed because that drive to buy a home and make it happen when you’re ready is really strong.”


Crazy Market Or Not, The Same Fundamentals Of Selling Real Estate Apply

The sale of S506 serves as another testament that selling with a plan in place is the best way too close for the most money within the specific markets current days on market.

It took just over a month from my first meeting with the owner, to customize a plan detailing how to make the unit market ready, complete the pre-listing items identified, list the property on the MLS, hold an Open House and ratify an offer. Success takes a team effort and effective, constant communications. My clients did an awesome job. Congratulations!

Days On Market: 5, average for the building 28


Existing-Home Sales Jump 4.3% to 6.85 Million in October

Key Highlights

  • Existing-home sales grew for the fifth consecutive month in October to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.85 million – up 4.3% from the prior month and 26.6% from one year ago.
  • The median existing-home price was $313,000, almost 16% more than in October 2019. Total housing inventory declined from the prior month and one year ago to 1.42 million, enough to last 2.5 months – a record low – at the current sales pace.
  • More than 7 in 10 homes sold in October 2020 – 72% – were on the market for less than a month.

Regionally

Existing-home sales in the South increased 3.2% to an annual rate of 2.91 million in October, up 26.5% from the same time one year ago. The median price in the South was $272,500, a 15.7% increase from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Click for full NAR news release


START TO FINISH – 406 DAYS, SO MANY GREAT THINGS HAVE COME WITH TIME AND PATIENCE

No it’s not the pandemic; there we can only follow safety precautions and hope.

Rather it’s one of my clients’ timeline to Sell and Buy during 2020. How did they go from a home of 9 yrs, with three school-aged children and two full time working parents into a new build that will suit their family for the next 20+ years during an unimaginable world wide pandemic? One step at a time.


We first connected on October 20, 2019. From there, we developed an individual step by step plan of ‘how to’ execute their real estate goals.
Following that plan led them to identifying the location, negotiating with the builder of their new home, and ratifying on Jan 1, 2020.
Coordinating with the builder, designers, lender and title resulted in closing on October 2, 2020, three months behind schedule due to pandemic related delays.

Then it was time to list their home of 9 years.

Despite being three months behind our original timeline, we referred back to the step by step plan we had created.
Without skipping a beat, my clients stuck to the plan and completed everything we had discussed to get the house ready for market.
We listed on a Thursday, ratified 5 days later on that Monday and closed in 21 days on November 30, 2020.


Homeownership Creates Wealth Even If That’s Not the Goal

3611 Perry Ave Kensington, MD 20895

What a beautiful day yesterday was to have a OPEN HOUSE. First in person Open I’ve held in months and buyers are out in droves. In our current market where listings and under contract in less than a week and inventory is under a month, buyers are committed to start building equity through ownership. – 3611 Perry Ave, Kensington MD 20895 *Contact me for local market area data and trends – Laurel

Homeowners who spent a lifetime working, raising families and paying mortgages have a greater net worth later in life. Among U.S. families who own rather than rent, a primary residence accounts for 90% of total wealth – and 99% for the bottom 20% of low-income owners.

WASHINGTON – Homeownership presents a great pathway to build wealth. Among all families, the ownership of a primary residence typically accounts for 90% of total wealth, based on the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finance data. Among those in the bottom 20% of the income percentile, it’s even more: The median value of holdings for a primary residence accounts for 99% of total family assets. For top earners, however – the top 10% income bracket – it’s 42%.

Housing wealth accumulation takes time. It’s built up slowly by paying off mortgage debt and through price appreciation. And while home prices can fall, prices tend to recover and go up over the long term. As of September 2020, the median sales price of existing home sales was $311,800 – a 35% gain since July 2006 when prices peaked at $230,000.

Nationally, a person who purchased a typical home 30 years ago gained about $283,000 as of the second quarter of 2020. Of the total wealth gain, 67% ($192,600) is from the price appreciation of 3.7% annually. Over a 10-year period, the wealth accumulation is $144,490, of which $114,233 (80%) is from price appreciation.

Nine of the top 10 metro areas with the largest housing wealth gains over a 10-year period were on the West Coast: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Sta. Clara; San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward; Anaheim-Sta. Ana-Irvine; San Diego-Carlsbad; Los-Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale; Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue; Boulder, Colorado; Urban Honolulu, Hawaii; and Denver-Aurora Lakewood, Colorado. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island rounds out the 10th.

However, in terms of home price appreciation and the rate of return (price appreciation less mortgage rate), the top metro areas are Cape Coral Fort-Myers, Florida; Grand Rapids, Michigan; Boise-City-Nampa, Idaho; Reno, Nevada; Port-St. Lucie, Florida; Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nevada; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Sta. Clara; Riverside-San Bernardino, California; Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Arizona; and Lakeland-Winter-Haven, Florida.

Copyright © 2020 National Association of Realtors® (NAR)


Existing-Home Sales Soar 9.4% to 6.5 Million in September

Key Highlights

  • Existing-home sales grew for the fourth consecutive month in September to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million – up 9.4% from the prior month and nearly 21% from one year ago.
  • The median existing-home price was $311,800, almost 15% more than in September 2019. Total housing inventory declined from the prior month and one year ago to 1.47 million, enough to last 2.7 months – a record low – at the current sales pace.
  • More than 7 in 10 homes sold in September 2020 – 71% – were on the market for less than a month.

Regionally

Existing-home sales in the South increased 8.5% to an annual rate of 2.80 million in September, up 22.3% from the same time one year ago. The median price in the South was $266,900, a 13.0% increase from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Click for full NAR news release

September 2020 Real Estate Statistics – DC Metro Area